After the death of the Hamas leader in a strike attributed to Israel on Wednesday, July 31, fears loom over possible retaliation that could set the region ablaze. France calls on its nationals to leave Iran.
Retaliation coming? After the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a strike blamed on Israel on Wednesday, July 31, Iran and its allies, including Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah , are now preparing their response, rockets having already been launched by the movement Thursday, August 1 in the evening towards northern Israel.
Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas and backed by Iran, has been exchanging almost daily fire with the Israeli army along the Israeli-Lebanese border since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, triggered by the Palestinian movement’s unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7.
France on Friday called on French people passing through “who would still be in Iran” to leave this country “as soon as possible”, because of the “aggravated” risk of military escalation between Israel and Tehran, a sign of international concern.
Hamas Calls for ‘Day of Rage’
As the official funeral of the Hamas leader, who was killed Wednesday in Tehran in a strike blamed on Israel, took place this Friday in northern Doha, several calls for revenge rang out.
In particular, Hamas called for a “day of rage” in memory of the man who had played a key role in the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian group for a truce in Gaza.
According to the New York Times, which quotes three unnamed Iranian officials, Ayatollah Khamenei, at an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, gave the order to strike Israel directly, in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel says it is ready for any “scenario”
On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured Thursday that the Jewish state was at a “very high level” of preparation for any scenario, “both defensive and offensive,” according to his office.
Ismail Haniyeh’s death came hours after an Israeli strike on Tuesday killed the military leader of the Lebanese Islamist movement, Fouad Choukr, in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
These two attacks have revived fears of an extension of the war to the entire Middle East, between Israel on the one hand, and Iran and the groups it supports in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen on the other.
A matter of “honour”
“There will inevitably be reprisals to wash Iran’s honor,” political scientist and director of the Observatory of Arab Countries Antoine Basbous told BFMTV.
For his part, the general of the air force and former leader of the Patrouille de France Patrick Dutartre tempers with BFMTV. He says that the real risk of a third Lebanon war is a third Lebanon war, but apparently no one wants it.
Moving beyond dialogue to action
In addition, political scientist Antoine Basbous reminds us that this potential response can take very different forms. He thus evokes possible “oral reprisals”, that is to say many threats without action and this has been seen many times. The Iranians say ‘we will react at the right time with the right target’ and nothing happens. ”
Third scenario, “they can hit hard without warning. At that moment, it is the gear that is assured”, he believes.
Stronger than the drone attack in April?
For some observers, the scale of the Iranian attack should remain limited. “Iran and Hezbollah will not want to play Netanyahu’s game and give him the bait or pretexts he needs to drag the United States into a war,” Amal Saad, a lecturer at Cardiff University and Hezbollah expert, told Agence France-Presse. “They will try to avoid a war while strongly deterring Israel,” she says.
According to political scientist and international affairs expert Ahmad Zeidabadi, “a stronger response is expected” from Iran than in its April 13 strike, when Tehran launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israeli territory. However, he had taken care to warn the United States before this response, mainly through the Swiss embassy in Tehran.
The Iranian expert explained that a repeat of the previous operation would not make sense because the missiles and drones did not hit sensitive areas and did not have a deterrent effect.
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